Will there be a recession in 2027?
Resolution
Criteria
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source
Kalshi (kalshi.com)
Context
The current economic landscape is uncertain, with factors such as inflation and global events affecting market stability. The Bureau of Economic Analysis tracks GDP growth to determine recession status. Economists are closely watching the fourth quarter of 2026 for signs of a potential downturn.
Recent News
Economists are predicting a potential recession in 2027, with a top economist warning of a "very significant" downturn and the OECD forecasting a spate of global recessions if the Iran conflict persists. The US economic forecast for Q1 2026 from Deloitte may provide insight into the lead-up to this predicted recession.
Discussion
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