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Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 29, 2026?

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution

Criteria

Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 29, 2026?"

Source

Polymarket (polymarket.com)

Context

Google has been actively developing its Gemini large language model, with the Pro model expected to be a significant upgrade, historical base rates for tech releases suggest a summer timeframe is plausible, key factors determining the outcome include Google's internal testing and regulatory approvals, and what to watch includes official announcements from Google and industry trend reports. The release of the next Google Gemini Pro model is highly anticipated, given its potential to impact the artificial intelligence landscape. Recent developments in the AI sector will likely influence the timing and features of the model's release.

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Recent News

Google's release of Gemini Pro has been delayed due to the technology not meeting internal goals, with specific issues including coding performance. The company is currently testing an upgraded model, potentially Gemini 3.5 Pro, although a new launch timeline has not been announced.

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