Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
About
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?"
Recent News
SpaceX is planning to launch five uncrewed Starship rockets towards Mars in late 2026, which could be followed by crewed missions if the initial launches are successful. The success of these launches is uncertain, with some sources analyzing the odds and valuations of SpaceX's endeavors, including its potential IPO and technological advancements like solar power.
- Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued - Morningstar
Morningstar
- Five uncrewed Starship rockets are projected to launch toward Mars during the brief window in late 2026 when the two planets align for the closest possible journey — and depending on whether they arrive intact, the first crewed missions could follow within fiv - Space Daily
Space Daily
- SpaceX Starship launch odds shift as Musk eyes solar power - scanx.trade
scanx.trade
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