Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?"
Context
The potential deal between the U.S. and Iran, facilitated by Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman, is a significant development in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with historical base rates for such agreements being relatively low due to complex interests and factions involved. Key factors determining the outcome include negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia, as well as domestic approval in each country, particularly in the U.S. where congressional support may be crucial. Recent diplomatic efforts and statements from involved parties should be closely monitored for signs of progress or stalemate.
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