Iran leadership change by September 30?
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Iran leadership change by September 30?"
Context
Iran's current Supreme Leader is Ali Khamenei, who has been in power since 1989 and is 83 years old, with his health and potential successors being closely watched. The Iranian government's structure and key factors such as the role of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts will determine the outcome of a potential leadership change. To predict the likelihood of a leadership change, it is essential to monitor Khamenei's health and any signs of a transition, as well as the activities of potential successors and the political climate in Iran.
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