Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
About
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?"
Context
Mexico's GDP growth rate has been steadily increasing over the past few years, with an average quarterly growth rate of 0.8% in 2025. The country's economic growth is largely driven by its manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as its growing service sector. To determine the outcome, key factors to watch include the latest data on industrial production, consumer spending, and trade balances, which will provide insight into the overall health of the Mexican economy.
Recent News
Mexico's economy contracted 0.8% in the first quarter of 2026, setting a potentially challenging backdrop for the upcoming Q2 GDP growth figures. The country's Q2 growth is likely to be closely watched to determine if the economy can recover from its first-quarter decline.
- Oil prices and AI investment play major role in the US economic forecast for 2026–2031 - Deloitte
Deloitte
- Global Economics Intelligence executive summary (May 2026) - McKinsey & Company
McKinsey & Company
- Mexican economy contracts 0.8% in the first quarter of the year - Mexico News Daily
Mexico News Daily
Discussion
Sign in to join the discussion.