French presidential election: who will advance?

Context

The 2027 French presidential election is expected to be highly competitive, with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen being potential frontrunners. Historical base rates suggest that incumbent presidents in France often face strong challenges, and key factors that will determine the outcome include the state of the economy, immigration policies, and the candidates' ability to appeal to a broad range of voters. To predict the outcome, it's essential to watch the candidates' poll numbers, campaign strategies, and debates leading up to the election.

Recent News

Marine Le Pen is moving forward with her 2027 presidential campaign in France despite a recent guilty verdict, with opinion polls currently indicating she could win the election. Her campaign launch comes after a court reduced a ban that had been imposed on her, allowing her to proceed with her bid for the presidency.

• Opinion polls see France's Le Pen winning 2027 election despite guilty verdict - Reuters

  Reuters

• Marine Le Pen launches France presidential campaign after ban reduced - The Guardian

  The Guardian

• France's Marine Le Pen, fighting court conviction and running for presidency - BBC

  BBC