Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stinky, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578829902717374° N, 37.73960567273168° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?"
Context
The market question refers to a potential event involving Russia and a location or entity named Stinky, but without further information, it's difficult to provide historical context or base rates. Key factors that will determine the outcome are unclear, but geopolitical developments and official statements from Russia or related entities may be relevant. To stay informed, monitor official announcements and news from Russia and related regions.
Recent News
Russia is being affected by an actual stink bug invasion, while also facing criticism over its military actions, with the US President stating that lower oil prices will hinder Russia's war efforts. Meanwhile, Georgia is also experiencing a stink bug invasion, which Russia has curiously blamed on the United States.
Discussion
Sign in to join the discussion.