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Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

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About

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Resolution

Criteria

Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will July 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?"

Context

Historically, July is one of the hottest months globally, with records showing an upward trend in temperatures due to climate change. The key factors determining the outcome will be global weather patterns, particularly those influenced by El Niño or La Niña events, as well as ongoing climate trends. To monitor the outcome, watching temperature reports from reputable sources like NASA or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be crucial.

Recent News

Global temperature records show that June 2026 was the second-hottest June on record, with heat records broken across Europe and oceans, according to recent data from NOAA and EU climate reports. This extreme heat has contributed to a continued trend of rising global temperatures, with NOAA's analysis providing further insight into the global temperature and precipitation patterns for the month.

Closes 2d left
Resolves Jul 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

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