Politics155d left

Trump out as President before 2027?

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About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution

Criteria

Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Trump out as President before 2027?"

Context

The market question concerns the likelihood of Donald Trump being removed as President before 2027, assuming he were to be elected or take office. Historical base rates for presidential removal are low, with only a few instances in US history, and key factors that will determine the outcome include impeachment proceedings, health issues, or resignation. To watch for updates on this market, monitor news on Trump's political career and any potential legal or health challenges he may face.

Recent News

Closes 155d left
Resolves Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

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