Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?"
Context
Venezuelan crude oil production has historically been a significant contributor to the country's economy, but it has faced significant declines in recent years due to sanctions, mismanagement, and a lack of investment. The key factors that will determine the outcome of this market question are the ability of the Venezuelan government to attract foreign investment, the impact of US sanctions on the country's oil industry, and the overall state of the country's oil infrastructure. production levels, which have been steadily increasing over the past year, need to continue to rise to reach the 1.5 million barrel per day target by the end of 2026.
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Recent News
Venezuela's oil production is currently being shaped by significant investments and deals, including a potential $400 million agreement for a stake in an oil field and refiners increasing their involvement in the country's oil industry. The United States has also collected over $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales in 2026, highlighting the ongoing flow of revenue from the country's oil exports.
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