Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
About
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?"
Context
The Federal Reserve has been closely watched for its decisions on interest rates, with the current economic climate and inflation rates being key factors in determining the outcome. Historical base rates suggest that the Fed tends to prioritize controlling inflation, but the recent slowdown in economic growth may influence their decision. The next three Federal Open Market Committee meetings in July, September, and October will be crucial in understanding the Fed's stance on interest rates, with investors and analysts watching for any signs of a pause or cut in interest rates.
Live Chart
Recent News
The Federal Reserve has decided to hold interest rates steady, removing language that hinted at potential future rate cuts, in a move seen as a "hawkish pause" indicating rates may remain elevated for longer. The decision was announced following the Federal Open Market Committee's June 16-17, 2026 meeting, as outlined in the official Federal Reserve statement.
Discussion
Sign in to join the discussion.