Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?"
Context
The US inflation rate has fluctuated in recent years, with a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and a low of 2.4% in 2021. Key factors that will determine the outcome include monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, global economic trends, and changes in commodity prices. To predict the inflation rate in 2026, it is essential to monitor the Fed's interest rate decisions and economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Live Chart
Recent News
The US inflation rate has surpassed 4% for the first time in three years, driven in part by rising oil prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching its highest level in over three years in May 2026. This surge in inflation has marked a significant increase, with recent data showing the inflation rate at its highest point since 2023.
Discussion
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