Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
About
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?"
Context
Brazil's annual inflation rate has been steadily declining since 2021, with a base rate of 10.06% in 2021 and 5.79% in 2022, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The outcome of this market will depend on factors such as monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank of Brazil, economic growth, and commodity prices. To determine the resolution of this market, it's essential to monitor the official inflation rate releases by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics and the Central Bank of Brazil's actions on interest rates.
Live Chart
Recent News
Brazil's annual inflation rate has risen to an 8-month high, deviating from the targeted range that was maintained at the end of 2025, potentially impacting future interest rate decisions. The current inflation surge may lead to a reevaluation of the anticipated rate cuts that were expected to follow the inflation rate's stability in 2025.
Discussion
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