Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Resolution
Criteria
Resolves YES based on the official Polymarket resolution for: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?"
Context
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil trade, with approximately 20% of the world's oil passing through it. Historically, the strait has been subject to disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, with Iran and the US having a significant impact on the region's stability. Key factors that will determine the outcome include diplomatic efforts to ease tensions and the presence of naval forces in the region, with the US and its allies working to maintain freedom of navigation and prevent any potential blockades.
Recent News
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed significantly due to recent attacks on ships, despite a brief surge in oil tanker traffic to its highest level since the conflict began. The exit of supertankers from the region has further reduced traffic to a crawl, with the ongoing presence of mines also posing a threat to shipping activity.
Discussion
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